Market Conditions

August Recess Isn't Slowing Down NAR

August Recess Isn’t Slowing Down NAR

By 2014 NAR President Steve Brown

Congress has adjourned for the rest of the summer, but that isn’t stopping REALTORS® from staying in touch with our representatives. NAR’s hardworking Federal Political Coordinators are meeting with Congress in their home districts.

The meetings are focused on two legislative priorities vital to NAR members and consumers – reinstating mortgage debt cancellation and reauthorizing terrorism risk insurance for businesses. NAR President Steve Brown provides the latest on both of these issues in the video below.

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Housing Market Forecast

Housing Market Forecast

Posted in Economic UpdatesEconomist Commentaries, by  on June 30, 2014
  • The housing market is beginning to roar back. Existing home sales have risen for two straight months after suffering declines since the summer months of last year. The pending contracts also show robust gains, implying home sales will further rise over the near term. Also there is sizable pent-up housing demand looking to emerge. The timing is uncertain. But the pent-up demand implies home sales have much room to rise over the next few years.
  • Existing home sales rose 4.9 percent in May from the prior month after accounting for normal seasonal factors. (Sales increased 12 percent on a raw count, but the bulk of that increase was due to the normal April to May seasonal upswing that occurs every year.) Now that pending home sales have increased by 6 percent in May, the closing activity is assured to rise further over the next two months.
  • One key factor that had held back home sales late last year and early this year was simply lack of inventory. If there are too few homes for sale then only too few homes will get sold. Now inventories are rising, not only on a monthly basis, but also from the same time one year ago. This bodes very well for more consumers getting into the market. One has to also remember that the increase in inventory is not only in pure supply, but many families are putting their home on the market in order to buy their next desired home. That is, the increases in inventory are also a reflection of increases in demand for home buying.
  • Newly constructed home sales also have been perking up. In May, new home sales surpassed the 500,000 annualized sales pace for the first time in 6 years. With the quickening pace of new home sales, homebuilders will want to create more dust and construct more new homes. That means more new home inventory on the way.
  • When home prices were rising at double-digit rates of appreciation, potential homebuyers naturally paused to wonder: is it a new bubble? Or can I afford these prices? But price appreciation has greatly moderated and is rising at only a few percentage points above wage growth. Therefore, potential homebuyers will no longer face the sticker shock and can now make rational decisions about whether or not it makes sense to buy a home.
  • There clearly appears to be large pent-up demand. Comparing current supporting factors for potential home sales with actual home sales show a mismatch. Back in the year 2000, a good reference year for comparison since there was neither bubble nor bust at that time, existing home sales reached over 5 million while new home sales nearly touched 1 million. Today, home sales activity is below that. However, there are 6.5 million additional jobs and 36 million additional people living in the country. Mortgage rates are also markedly lower today. Therefore, potential home sales are measurably larger than what we are observing. Home sales have plenty of room for a further rise.
  • The outlook, therefore, is for housing starts and new home sales to rise comfortably this year and the next. Existing home sales, due to a sluggish first quarter, will fall a bit short in annual tally this year, but will show growth in 2015. Home prices will rise, though at a manageable single-digit rate of appreciation over the next two years.

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Lawrence Yun, PhD., Chief Economist and Senior Vice President

Lawrence Yun is Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Research at NAR. He directs research activity for the association and regularly provides commentary on real estate market trends for its 1 million REALTOR® members.

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Purchasing a Home in a Down Economy

There is a certain state of mind that is being drilled into our collective psyche by the media that goes something like this: 'You cannot buy a home now, you don't know if you will have a job tomorrow.' And they go on to show all the countless people who are at the job fairs with resume in hand.

However, if you are currently renting and you lose your job and can't pay the rent, what happens? Your landlord evicts you and probably faster than a mortgage company can foreclose on you!

Yet that is what we hear in the news day after day, people are afraid to buy because of the economy.  Oh, woe is me!

Don't get me wrong, I know there are plenty of people out there who can't buy a home for lots of rational reasons that prevent them from qualifiying but, the economy isn't one of them.  Let's put on that 'common sense' thinking cap for a moment and look at things with a saner attitude.  If you are renting a good size apartment, townhouse, condo or even a single family home, you are most likely paying around $1,000/month.  Now for that same approximate monthly outlay you can purchase a $150,000 home using FHA financing.

What do you have to do differently than what you're doing now? You need a down payment of 3.5% or $5,250, which can come all from you or partly from you, gifted to you in total or in part from Mom or Day, Grandmother, or Uncle Joe.  Your credit score needs to be 600+ and your revolving and installment debt when added to the proposed mortgage payment generally shouldn't exceed 45% of your gross (before taxes) monthly income.  How many of you have I lost? I'll be not many.

Now let's keep those thinking caps on and look at the market place.  You would be amazed at how many good homes you can buy today for $150,000 in the Louisville market! And there isn't a real estate worth their salt that couldn't get you that property with the seller paying your closing costs.

So while you still have that thinking cap on, give me a call at (502) 238-7400 or visit my website at www.juliepogue.com and let's get started.  It's all free, no obligation.

Hope you all have a terrific week and that your Fall is off to a great start!

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Adjust Your Sails

 

There is an old German Proverb that goes something like this, 'You can't reset the winds.  But you can adjust your sails!' Right now, there are many people coming through our real estate office that are moving in or out of our area.  The state of the real estate market could cause them real stress.  However, with our professional guidance, most of our clients choose to 'adjust their sails' so to speak.

Let's just use an illustration of a couple who bought at the height of the real estate market and now find themselves facing relocation to another market.  Instead of worrying about the money they were going to lose on the selling side they chose to focus on the money they were going to save on the home they were going to purchase in their new market.  They sold their home for $300,000 and did have to bring $30,000 to the closing table.  However, we were able to refer them to a very savvy real estate professional in their new market who was able to snag them a home that was listed for $650,000 in the fall of 2010 for just over $500,000 now.  So they picked up about $150,000 on the new home, take away the loss of $30,000 and they are still up $120,000.  Plus they will probably get a write off for selling their hom at a loss.  Be sure to double-check with your own personal accountant for what you might realize in a similar situation as everyone's circumstances are different.

My point here could be applied to anything in your life.  Adjust your sails.  The winds of our lives are in constant change.  Adjust your sails to take advantage of the changing winds.  Be willing to adjust to the changes in your life.  In that willingness you will discover opportunity! By adjusting your sails  you will continue to sail in the direction of your goals through the storms of life.  Adjusting your course along the way will keep you on course.

All of us at Julie Pogue Properties are here to help you stay on course with all of your real estate needs and to encourage you to live your best life.  We can advise you on what the prevailing winds in the real estate market are and help you navigate your best deal.  Call us today.

Hope you all have a terrific week!

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Information the Biggest Factor to Weathering the Real Estate Recession


Washington Post columnist Michelle Singletary recently wrote a great article about how the cardinal rule of real estate has changed from "location, location location" to "information, information, information."

Reviewing a recent book by Illice Glink about the changing world of real estate, Singletary offers the following quote from Glinks' book:
“For decades, the real estate industry has operated under the principle that the less information buyers and sellers have, the better it is for agents, lenders, title companies, and all the other folks who eat from the trough."
 
Singletary then goes on to explain, "I'm sure that many real estate professionals will take exception to Glink's observation. But the evidence is on her side. The housing market collapsed because far too many borrowers were uninformed, ill-prepared and overly optimistic about potential gain because of bad information they received and gladly embraced."

Here at JuliePogue.com we couldn't agree more -- that's why we've worked hard to provide you with the best real estate search tools available, packed with as much detail as we can provide, and it's also why we're also here to provide you with past sale information on any home, disclosures, and / or a comprehensive market analysis whenever you need it....